Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 18,951
2 New Jersey 17,536
3 Massachusetts 13,593
4 Rhode Island 13,413
5 District of Columbia 11,808
6 Connecticut 11,584
7 Delaware 9,310
8 Illinois 8,955
9 Louisiana 8,228
10 Maryland 7,987
11 Nebraska 6,523
12 Iowa 5,704
13 Pennsylvania 5,692
14 Michigan 5,511
15 South Dakota 5,259
16 Indiana 4,880
17 Mississippi 4,613
18 Virginia 4,609
19 Colorado 4,263
20 Georgia 3,961
21 Minnesota 3,895
22 New Mexico 3,400
23 Kansas 3,210
24 Alabama 3,191
25 North Dakota 3,178
26 New Hampshire 3,111
27 Tennessee 3,069
28 Ohio 2,823
29 Washington 2,794
30 Wisconsin 2,734
31 Utah 2,689
32 Nevada 2,616
33 California 2,528
34 Florida 2,432
35 North Carolina 2,306
36 Arizona 2,305
37 Kentucky 2,053
38 Arkansas 2,047
39 Missouri 2,026
40 South Carolina 2,023
41 Texas 1,984
42 Maine 1,568
43 Oklahoma 1,550
44 Vermont 1,549
45 Idaho 1,510
46 Wyoming 1,468
47 Puerto Rico 1,040
48 West Virginia 1,034
49 Oregon 940
50 Alaska 568
51 Montana 448
52 Hawaii 447

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 District of Columbia 173
2 Maryland 147
3 Illinois 141
4 Virginia 140
5 Delaware 128
6 Minnesota 125
7 Connecticut 119
8 Iowa 116
9 Nebraska 108
10 Alabama 102
11 New Jersey 99
12 Massachusetts 98
13 Mississippi 81
14 Rhode Island 81
15 Louisiana 77
16 South Dakota 69
17 New York 67
18 California 59
19 Indiana 58
20 Tennessee 58
21 New Mexico 53
22 Wisconsin 53
23 Georgia 52
24 North Carolina 46
25 Pennsylvania 46
26 Ohio 45
27 Arkansas 44
28 Utah 37
29 Colorado 35
30 Arizona 34
31 New Hampshire 34
32 Washington 34
33 Florida 33
34 South Carolina 33
35 Nevada 31
36 Kentucky 27
37 Missouri 27
38 Kansas 26
39 Michigan 24
40 North Dakota 24
41 Texas 24
42 Maine 23
43 Puerto Rico 23
44 West Virginia 23
45 Wyoming 21
46 Oklahoma 14
47 Idaho 13
48 Oregon 6
49 Vermont 6
50 Alaska 3
51 Hawaii 0
52 Montana 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,503
2 New Jersey 1,259
3 Connecticut 1,057
4 Massachusetts 939
5 District of Columbia 623
6 Rhode Island 598
7 Louisiana 581
8 Michigan 527
9 Pennsylvania 404
10 Illinois 391
11 Maryland 385
12 Delaware 344
13 Indiana 297
14 Colorado 234
15 Mississippi 219
16 Georgia 175
17 Ohio 171
18 Minnesota 161
19 New Hampshire 157
20 New Mexico 154
21 Iowa 152
22 Virginia 144
23 Washington 143
24 Nevada 128
25 Alabama 118
26 Missouri 113
27 Arizona 110
28 Florida 105
29 California 97
30 Kentucky 91
31 Wisconsin 88
32 South Carolina 86
33 Vermont 86
34 Nebraska 82
35 Oklahoma 80
36 North Carolina 75
37 Kansas 70
38 North Dakota 70
39 Maine 58
40 South Dakota 56
41 Texas 53
42 Tennessee 49
43 Idaho 45
44 West Virginia 41
45 Puerto Rico 40
46 Arkansas 39
47 Oregon 35
48 Utah 31
49 Wyoming 22
50 Montana 15
51 Hawaii 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Rhode Island 11
2 Connecticut 8
3 Massachusetts 8
4 District of Columbia 6
5 New York 5
6 Maryland 4
7 Mississippi 4
8 New Jersey 4
9 Delaware 3
10 Illinois 3
11 Iowa 3
12 Virginia 3
13 Alabama 2
14 Georgia 2
15 Minnesota 2
16 New Mexico 2
17 Colorado 1
18 Indiana 1
19 Louisiana 1
20 Michigan 1
21 Nebraska 1
22 New Hampshire 1
23 Ohio 1
24 Pennsylvania 1
25 South Carolina 1
26 Washington 1
27 Alaska 0
28 Arizona 0
29 Arkansas 0
30 California 0
31 Florida 0
32 Hawaii 0
33 Idaho 0
34 Kansas 0
35 Kentucky 0
36 Maine 0
37 Missouri 0
38 Montana 0
39 Nevada 0
40 North Carolina 0
41 North Dakota 0
42 Oklahoma 0
43 Oregon 0
44 Puerto Rico 0
45 South Dakota 0
46 Tennessee 0
47 Texas 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 123,361 1 99
Dakota Nebraska 82,293 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 74,862 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 68,334 4 99
Lake Tennessee 58,865 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 7,166 258 91
Richland South Carolina 3,334 683 78
Pierce Washington 2,081 1003 68
Orange California 1,764 1147 63
York South Carolina 1,253 1466 53

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Terrell Georgia 3,048 1 99
Early Georgia 2,944 2 99
Randolph Georgia 2,803 3 99
Hancock Georgia 2,601 4 99
Essex New Jersey 2,009 5 99
Richland South Carolina 152 575 81
Davidson Tennessee 86 809 74
Pierce Washington 83 831 73
Orange California 41 1206 61
York South Carolina 21 1474 53

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons